Data #1
No Recession = Swift Market Recovery
What’s Happening?
Markets have been volatile, but corrections are nothing new. The real question is how long they last and how deep they go.
The Data: Historically, S&P 500 corrections average -21% overall, but there’s a key distinction—when a recession follows, the average drawdown is longer. However, when no recession occurs, the market typically bottoms and recovers quickly.
Investor Takeaway: With ongoing debates about economic slowdown risks, this data suggests that if the economy holds up, we could see a sharp recovery rather than prolonged pain. Investors often price in worst-case scenarios, but history shows that markets can reset faster than expected. So let’s look at some economic insights…
Data #2
Payments Data: What Financial Firms Are Seeing
What’s Happening?
Three of the largest financial companies—Mastercard, PayPal, and Fiserv—spoke at the Wolfe Conference this week, offering a window into consumer spending. Their message? Things are stable.
The Data:
Mastercard: Spending remains steady when adjusted for the leap-year effect.
PayPal: Total payment volume is in line with recent trends.
Fiserv: Small business spending is up 3.5% YTD—showing momentum.
Investor Takeaway: Despite the noise around macro uncertainty, payments data suggests consumers and businesses are still transacting at a healthy rate. That’s a strong counterpoint to fears of an imminent spending slowdown.
Data #3
Egg Prices Drop Sharply— Sentiment Follows?
What’s Happening?
Egg prices have plunged in recent weeks, and while this is a small piece of household budgets, it’s a big psychological driver of inflation sentiment.
The Data: Prices are down over 6% recently after a sharp rise last year.
Investor Takeaway: Inflation expectations are often shaped by highly visible items like food and gas. While broader inflation trends are more complex, a noticeable drop in egg prices may help cool consumer anxiety—even if the Fed isn’t making decisions based on the cost of breakfast.
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